by Mark Schield
As the end of 1999 approaches, everyone is talking about one of two
things: Y2K; or where they’ll be spending New Year’s Eve to welcome in the next
century. The focus is clearly on looking ahead to the future.
In our industry we’re also eager to embrace all the “newness” that the year
2000 will bring. And, although there are no crystal balls with magic powers available to
us, we can make certain educated guesses and predictions that will help make the
transition into the next century a little easier.
First of all, we’re already feeling increased pressure in the window and door
industry to provide more resilient products to handle severe weather. This will continue
in the immediate future. Just look at the hurricane season that just passed. During one
week in late August there were three major storms backed up in the Atlantic ... with
frantic homeowners boarding up their windows from as far south as Miami all the way up
through the Carolinas. And in September, Hurricane Floyd wreaked havoc in the Carolinas
and all along the Eastern seaboard.
Impact resistant glass and low maintenance coastal products are already in high demand
from builders, remodelers and homeowners. This need will increase steadily in the years to
come as weather patterns become more unpredictable and wider spread geographical areas are
affected by the potential of severe weather.
Impact-resistant glass gives homeowners a passive, non-worry way to secure their homes
from impending storms. The options and availability of impact-resistant glass have grown
dramatically in recent years. As a result, homeowners are embracing the idea that even
during a severe storm, the contents of their home will not be harmed by flying glass and
water damage. We easily see increased positive reaction from architects, builders and
homeowners to specifying and installing impact-resistant glass in future projects.
A second major prediction we’re making for 2000 is the usage of more
high-end mulled window units with advanced structural integrity. The window package has
become increasingly important for homeowners who want to capture views and bring the
outside indoors. As a result, builders nationwide are becoming more demanding on the
structural needs of windows for luxury homes. To meet this need, window manufacturers, our
company included, are introducing upgraded products to meet these needs.
Architects are definitely designing more walls of windows with multiple window
configurations for luxury homes. Builders want to construct these complex walls with
confidence. That means they need mulled window units that can withstand excessive pressure
tests and severe weather. Manufacturers who offer these upgraded window units will see
positive sales results.
Overall, the housing industry has been riding a wave of strong numbers and
success for the past several years. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
predicts that housing starts in 1999 will equal those in 1998. The number of 1.6 million
housing starts has been achieved due to low interest rates and a solid economy. For 2000,
NAHB predicts that number will drop to 1.5 million starts because of an expected slow down
in the economy and slightly increasing interest rates.
But, although housing starts may be dropping, the news is not all bad. NAHB also predicts
that 1.3 million of those starts will be single-family dwellings, which require more
windows than multiple-unit dwellings. This trend towards single-family units has been
rising slowly during the past several years and should keep window and door manufacturers
very busy in the foreseeable future.
What window products will be most popular with homeowners and builders in
2000?
If 1999 is any indication, wood windows are high on the list. Demand for wood windows has
been exceptional this year. We’ve seen immediate interest in our Legacy Series
introduction and advancing interest in the low maintenance ProShield™ line of
vinyl-clad exterior, wood interior windows. The intensity of orders for these two product
lines alone signals that the wood window market will remain strong in 2000.
While it may level off, some expect to also see the vinyl window market continue its
steady growth patterns in the next century. I believe vinyl windows will continue to find
its niche in middle- to low-range homes nationwide. There are also distinct regional
trends emerging for high-end vinyl windows, especially in the West and Southeast.
Traditional shop-built windows are declining in those markets. We’re finding out that
homeowners are becoming more savvy and demanding quality, brand name windows.
And, what about the remodeling industry? Our 1999 prediction for increases in the
remodeling market was right on target and we forecast that this market will continue to
soar. The boom seems never-ending for remodeling and replacement windows.
Throughout New England and much of the Midwest, we feel the trend towards historic
restoration and renovation projects will continue to escalate into the next century.
There’s a continued push towards re-use of older buildings in this country.
We’re constantly getting involved with projects that take old factories and convert
them to condo units, offices or retail operations.
People associated with these ingenious plans are eager to keep the historical accuracy of
the windows and buildings as part of the renovation. These are typically projects where
our HR175™ and Custom Shield™ replacement window series have been very popular.
We have every indication that these examples of light commercial preservation projects
will grow steadily in the next several years.
There’s no doubt that the building industry is entering the next century on a high
note. The exciting element is that window and door manufacturers are meeting the challenge
of producing higher quality products that can perform even better in the 21st century than
they did in the 20th century.
Mark Schield
is vice president of Weather Shield Windows & Doors, based in Medford, WI.
While two companies ventured their predictions for what the year 2000 and
beyond holds in terms of window and door industry trends, an international research
company makes some predictions as well. The Freedonia Group, based in Cleveland, OH,
publishes more than 100 studies annually and recently completed the study, Windows and
Doors. Following are some excerpts.
Residential Trends
• Demand for windows and doors associated with residential
buildings is expected to grow slightly under one percent through 2003 to $15.6 billion.
• Repair and improvement expenditures will drive advances in
demand, offsetting an outright decline in housing starts during the period.
• Vinyl and other plastic materials will continue to make gains at
the expense of wood and metal products, especially for windows, thanks to their
durability, low maintenance requirements and lower cost.
• Increases in the size of dwelling units will help demand for
windows and doors, as window demand generally increases with higher exterior wall area and
larger garages require bigger (or more) garage doors.
Demand by Material
• In 1989, wood products accounted for nearly three-fifths
of the value of U.S. demand for windows and doors. By 1998, that fraction fell below half,
and the downward trend is forecast to continue into the beginning of the 21st century.
Through 2003, residential demand for windows and doors is expected to shrink more than one
percent per year to $6.8 billion.
• Vinyl replacement windows have eclipsed wood in unit terms
(although not in dollar value) and steel doors have surpassed wood in applications
demanding security, such as entrance doors and garages. Still, wood will remain the most
prominent material in terms of dollar value through 2003.
• Metal windows and doors will suffer incremental declines in
residential demand to $4.9 billion in 2003. The weakness in new housing construction will
impede opportunities for entrance and garage doors—two of the larger residential
product segments.
• Vinyl and other plastic windows and doors will post advances of
7.5 percent per year through 2003 in residential markets reaching $3.9 billion. Plastics
will benefit from the development of higher-valued composite
materials that offer design flexibility similar to wood, improved thermal performance,
recyclability and low maintenance.
Demand by End Use
• New housing. Demand for windows and doors for use in new
residences is forecast to decline just under one percent per year through 2003 to $8.7
billion. While housing starts will be declining, inflation-adjusted expenditures on new
housing will rise, indicating that higher-valued, specialty products such as window walls
or combinations of patio doors and windows could see increased sales.
• New residential construction. Wood will remain the largest
material segment for windows and doors through 2003, but demand for these products will
fall to $4.1 billion with annual declines of 2.5 percent. Vinyl and other plastic
materials will make gains at the expense of wood and metal products, with demand rising
6.5 percent annually through 2003 to $1.5 billion.
• Repair and Improvements. Demand for windows and doors in
residential repair and improvement applications is forecast to advance 3.3 percent per
annum through 2003 to $7 billion. Concerns about improving efficiency of energy usage will
spur upgrades of windows to newer, insulated glass products.
The survey, “Windows & Doors,” is available for $3,500.
USG
© Copyright 1999 Key Communications, Inc. All rights reserved. No reproduction of any type without expressed written permission.