Nonresidential Construction Spending Projected to Increase Through 2023

According to a new report from the American Institute of Architects, the nonresidential building sector is expected to see a healthy rebound through next year after failing to recover with the broader economy last year.

The AIA’s Consensus Construction Forecast panel expects spending on nonresidential building construction to increase by 5.4% in 2022 and accelerate to an additional 6.1% increase in 2023. With a 5% decline in construction spending on buildings last year, only retail and other commercial, industrial and health care facilities managed spending increases. This year, only the hotel, religious and public safety sectors are expected to decline. By 2023, all the major commercial, industrial and institutional categories are projected to see at least reasonably healthy gains.

“The pandemic, supply chain disruptions, growing inflation, labor shortages, and the potential passage of all or part of the Build Back Better legislation could have a dramatic impact on the construction sector this year,” said AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. “Challenges to the economy and the construction industry notwithstanding, the outlook for the nonresidential building market looks promising for this year and next.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2022 2023
Overall nonresidential building 5.4% 6.1%
Commercial total  4.7% 5.3%
Office space 0.8% 3.6%
Retail & Other Commercial 7.5% 4.9%
Hotels -0.4% 13.5%
Industrial total 9.4% 8.4%
Institutional total  4.4% 6.0%
Healthcare facilities 6.2% 6.0%
Education 3.5% 6.1%
Religious -1.1% 1.2%
Public safety -1.3% 5.6%
Amusement / recreation 7.7% 6.0%
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