Multifamily housing has ruled the roost in residential construction growth for most of the past decade, but that’s about to change.

Single-family housing will power a construction recovery through 2017 as the multifamily sector cools off after several years of strong growth, according to economists who participated in Wednesday’s National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Spring Construction Forecast Webinar.

multi“2016 should be the first year since the Great Recession in which the growth rate for single-family production exceeds that of multifamily,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

According to NAHB, multifamily starts hit their trough in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 82,000. Since then, that number has increased 316 percent to 341,000 in the first quarter of 2016—and even that number is down somewhat significantly since early 2015.

Multifamily production reached 395,000 units last year, exceeding the rate of 331,000 units that’s seen as normal. Multifamily starts are expected to decline 4 percent to 379,000 units this year, but rise 6 percent to 402,000 units in 2017.

Single-family production, meanwhile, is expected to increase 14 percent in 2016 to 812,000 units and climb an additional 19 percent to 964,000 units in 2017. Single-family starts currently stands at 58 percent of normal activity, which NAHB defines as 1.3 million units produced on an annual basis. NAHB projects single-family production will rise to 64 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of this year and hit 77 percent of normal by the end of 2017.

Residential remodeling activity is expected to increase 3.3 percent in 2016 and rise an additional 1.3 percent in 2017.

According to the NAHB economists, job growth, low mortgage rates and affordable prices will push the housing market higher into 2016. However, a shortage of construction workers and a lack of developable lots of land, along with tight access to acquisition, construction and development loans, will continue to be a drag on the recovery.