Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4 percent through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months.

“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” says AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts20192020
Overall nonresidential building4.4%2.4%
Commercial/industrial total3.5%0.6%
Hotels3.9%-0.7%
Office space5.1%1.2%
Retail1.9%0.4%
Industrial total4.8%2.7%
Institutional total4.8%2.9%
Public safety6.8%4.9%
Healthcare facilities4.0%3.6%
Education5.5%4.1%
Amusement/recreation4.4%0.6%
Religious-2.6%-1.2%
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