Tariffs have been at the forefront of economic policy throughout 2025, impacting companies and consumers alike. For the glass and architectural metal industries, tariffs and other economic factors (global supply-chain disruptions, commodity markets, energy prices) have affected the costs to manufacture, sell and import glass and metal products.
The impacts have been most noticeable in the metals sector as architectural metal companies have borne the brunt of tariffs and higher import costs. According to the Labor Department’s November Producer Price Index, prices in November for some metal products (metal windows and doors and frames) were above 11% and 18% higher than in November 2024, due in part to tariffs on derivative metal products.
However, a new working paper co-authored by Gita Gopinath (Harvard University) and Brent Neiman (University of Chicago) found that tariff rates are much lower than announced.
Headline Tariffs vs. Reality
Gopinath and Neiman write that while tariffs were obviously higher in 2025 than in 2024, the actual tariff rate was 14%, roughly half of the statutory rate of 27%, which is reported to be the highest level since the late 1930s.
“Currently, the actual tariff rates on United States imports are not nearly as large as policy announcements suggest, but they are still historically large and reshaping U.S. trade patterns,” the authors conclude. “Pass-through to import prices is high, China’s share of U.S. imports has collapsed, and U.S. manufacturers face higher input costs. Important questions remain.”
They explain that the difference between the actual rate and the statutory rate has been driven by:
- Shipping lags: New tariff hikes only apply to goods loaded after the announcement. Many imports still arrive under older, lower rates;
- Tariff exemptions: Some products or specific companies got carve-outs;
- United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) usage: Canadian/Mexican suppliers can qualify goods for duty-free treatment if enough value is added under the trade agreement; and
- Evasion and enforcement variation: Not all tariffs are collected at the expected level.
Gopinath and Neiman note that in the coming months, the actual rate is not expected to catch up with the statutory rate.
“Absent stronger enforcement, USMCA utilization will likely remain high, evasion efforts will become more sophisticated and the announcement of new exemptions continues,” they write.
What it Means for Glass and Architectural Metals
For companies, it means that import costs are still high, but not at the levels implied by 25–30% headline tariffs. This helps explain why many contractors and fabricators have seen steady price pressure rather than sudden surges.
Despite the lower actual tariff rate, the glass and construction companies remain susceptible to a bevy of tariffs on some countries (China, Mexico and Canada) and materials (aluminum, lumber, steel, copper, etc.). Potential tariffs on additional construction-related products could be on the horizon, including robotics and industrial machinery. The Department of Commerce published a notice in September 2025 that the Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects on the national security of imports of robotics and industrial machinery.
Furthermore, Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard professor of capital formation and growth, notes in a post for the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center that tariff impacts are expected to become more noticeable in 2026. The impacts will gradually appear as data catches up following the U.S. government shutdown and inventories frontloaded between November 2024 and May 2025 run dry, though importers continue to absorb most of the cost increases to cushion the blow for customers.
“I’d say about 50% of the price increases have happened,” Gopinath told NPR’s Marketplace in early January. “I think there’s another 50% in the pipeline. That’s usually how it works. It doesn’t happen overnight. It takes a couple of years for the full effect to go through. After that, I don’t think it’s going to keep going up, unless we have crazy policies at the Federal Reserve.”